Research & Original Analysis
Long-form, data-driven analysis of US sports betting markets, fiscal policy, regulation, and operator economics. Each report compiles primary sources (state regulator filings, operator 10-Ks, lottery annual reports) into syntheses not available elsewhere at consumer-facing depth.
Current research
The 2026 Stanley Cup Final: A Data Analysis
Series, Per-Game & Goalscorer Projections
A transparent statistical analysis of Carolina vs Vegas built on real 2025-26 expected-goals and goaltending data (NHL API + MoneyPuck). Exact best-of-7 enumeration for the series projection and per-game win probabilities, expected goals, and the most likely goalscorers, with full methodology and sources.
The Promo Erosion Calendar
When Welcome Bonuses Are Best & Worst
Longitudinal study of US sportsbook welcome bonuses across 13 operators, January 2024 through April 2026. Identifies the three months bettors should claim a welcome offer and the three months to avoid. Includes monthly Best Offer Score and per-operator volatility ranking.
Who Wins the 2026 Stanley Cup
A 16-Team Probabilistic Forecast
Transparent five-factor power-rating model with Bradley-Terry head-to-head and full bracket simulation. Per-team probability of advancing each round and winning the Cup, summing to 100% across the field.
Where US Sports Betting Tax Revenue Actually Goes
A 38-State Fiscal Analysis
Empirical breakdown of state tax revenue, allocation, operator promo deductions, and per-capita extraction across every legal US sports-betting jurisdiction. 2024-2025 actuals plus 2025 projections.