MLB MVP Odds 2026
Awarded mid-November 2026 · Two awards (AL + NL)
Ohtani opens NL at +200 looking for his fifth MVP. Aaron Judge favored in AL at +275.
Every Contender Ranked
MLB has two MVP awards (AL and NL). Both are voted by the BBWAA after the regular season. In-season MVP futures are typically the highest-volume MLB market between the All-Star break and September. The two markets are listed below in one combined view.
| # | Player | Odds | Editorial Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Shohei Ohtani LA Dodgers (NL) | -370 | Heavy NL favorite. Hitting .246 with 6 HR / 13 RBI through early May plus pitching workload. Voter fatigue irrelevant; books treating this as nearly settled. |
| 02 | Aaron Judge NY Yankees (AL) | +140 | AL favorite. Tied for MLB lead in HR (13); Yankees atop the AL East. Cleaner pitches with Soto in the lineup behind him. |
| 03 | Yordan Alvarez Houston Astros (AL) | +250 | Rocketed from middle-of-the-pack into co-favorite tier after a historic April at the plate. |
| 04 | Bobby Witt Jr Kansas City Royals (AL) | +900 | Best 5-tool AL talent; Royals run support limits the ballot. |
| 05 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr Toronto Blue Jays (AL) | +1200 | Contract year; Jays bouncing back with the healthy rotation. |
| 06 | Corbin Carroll Arizona Diamondbacks (NL) | +1800 | Distant NL second behind Ohtani; needs the D-backs to contend in the West for ballot traction. |
| 07 | Mookie Betts LA Dodgers (NL) | +2000 | Health holding; teammate Ohtani crowds the NL ballot. |
| 08 | José Ramírez Cleveland Guardians (AL) | +2200 | Most consistent AL MVP candidate of the decade; another solid start. |
| 09 | Ronald Acuña Jr Atlanta Braves (NL) | +2500 | Post-ACL ramp continues; Braves the hottest team in baseball means his case grows weekly. |
| 10 | Freddie Freeman LA Dodgers (NL) | +3000 | Always in the conversation; Ohtani's presence is the limiting factor. |
| 11 | Gunnar Henderson Baltimore Orioles (AL) | +3500 | Year 3 leap candidate; Orioles offense ranks top-5 in projected runs. |
| 12 | Juan Soto NY Mets (NL) | +4000 | Producing as expected; Mets contention path is the gating factor. |
| 13 | Pete Alonso NY Mets (NL) | +5000 | Soto extension means Alonso sees better pitches; Mets lineup most improved in NL. |
| 14 | Francisco Lindor NY Mets (NL) | +6000 | Was 2024 #2 in NL voting; full health and Mets contention helps. |
| 15 | Riley Greene Detroit Tigers (AL) | +6500 | Year 4 breakout candidate; Tigers offense rebuilt around him. |
Odds reflect a consensus snapshot across major US-licensed operators as of . Prices vary slightly between books; line-shop across two or three operators before placing a futures bet at this size.
What the Market Is Telling Us
Ohtani at -370 in the NL is the shortest MVP price of the modern era. The market has him at ~78% implied. Even with a slow batting start (.246), the pitching contribution + Dodger lineup support = de facto inevitability barring injury.
AL is much more competitive than the NL. Judge (+140) leads but Yordan Alvarez (+250) has rocketed up the board with a historic April. The two are now in genuine co-favorite territory; books are split on which is more likely to be on top by August.
Best AL value: Bobby Witt Jr at +900. Best 5-tool player in the AL by Statcast metrics. The Royals' projected mid-80-win season gives him team-success backing for the ballot; higher upside than Vladdy at +1200 if Witt sustains his early pace.
Best NL longshot: Acuña at +2500. Post-ACL ramp continues, Braves are the hottest team in baseball, and his pre-injury baseline (+175 in his last full season) suggests significant upside if his health holds the rest of the season.
How to Bet a Futures Market
Futures bets compound differently from straight game bets. Three principles separate sharp futures bettors from the field.
Bet early; the price only gets shorter
Futures markets compress as the season progresses. A team that opens at +1500 in March is rarely +1500 by July if they\'re winning. The cost of being right early is smaller than the cost of being right late.
Hedge selectively, never at first chance
Hedging mid-season locks in modest profit but caps your upside. Best hedge windows: when your futures team is one win from the championship, or when the opposing-side price is favorable enough to guarantee a meaningful return regardless of outcome.
Size for variance, not for confidence
Even a "mortal lock" futures bet has a 30-50% loss probability in the long run. Treat futures positions as longshots even when they feel safe. Use Kelly-criterion sizing if you have a calibrated edge.
Shop two-to-three books on every futures bet
Pricing differences of 50-100 cents on long-shot futures are routine. A +2000 ticket at one book might be +2200 at another; that 200-cent gap is 10% of your potential payout. Use the major US books (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars) as your line-shopping baseline.
Want to do the math? Use our parlay calculator to combine futures legs, our no-vig converter to see what the market actually believes, and our Kelly criterion calculator for optimal bet sizing.
Frequently Asked
When is MLB MVP awarded?
MLB MVP (one award per league) is announced in mid-November during the BBWAA awards week. Voting is conducted by 30 BBWAA members (two per AL and NL city). Ballots submitted at the end of the regular season; postseason performance is not considered.
Can a pitcher win MLB MVP?
Rarely. Since 1992, only Justin Verlander (2011), Clayton Kershaw (2014), and Shohei Ohtani (2021, 2023, 2024) have won MVP as starting pitchers. Ohtani's case is unique; he is also a hitter. The Cy Young Award is the standard pitcher honor.
How important is team record for MLB MVP?
Less than NBA, more than NFL. Team success matters but does not dominate: Mike Trout won MVP for losing Angels teams. Voters reward exceptional individual performance even on bad teams more often in baseball than in basketball or football.
When should I bet MLB MVP futures?
Three windows: (1) March-April (pre-season + early season), when offseason moves and Spring Training narratives haven't been priced; (2) Mid-July around the All-Star break, when half-season form is clear; (3) August 15, after the trade deadline impact on contenders is visible.
What is the difference between MVP and Cy Young?
Cy Young is the pitcher-of-the-year award (one per league). MVP is the overall player-of-the-year award (one per league). Pitchers can win either or both (Ohtani and Verlander have done it). Bet Cy Young separately for pitcher candidates rather than trying to project them as MVP longshots.
Are AL and NL MVP markets always priced separately?
Yes. Each book lists distinct AL MVP and NL MVP markets. You can bet both independently. Combined "MLB MVP" is not a real market: there are always two MVPs awarded each season.