MLB Rookie of the Year Odds 2026
Awarded mid-November 2026 · Two awards (AL + NL)
AL: Munetaka Murakami leads at +155 after passing DeLauter in late April. NL: Sal Stewart back atop at +130 after a hot start at the plate.
Every Contender Ranked
MLB has two Rookie of the Year awards (AL and NL). Both go to the best first-year player; pitchers and position players compete on the same ballot. The 2026 races have separated quickly with Murakami (AL) and Stewart (NL) emerging as clear favorites by early May.
| # | Player | Odds | Editorial Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Sal Stewart Cincinnati Reds (NL) | +130 | NL favorite. Earned NL Player of the Week honors after reaching base 10 times in three games (incl. 2-HR / 6-RBI vs Giants 4/15). Implied prob ~43%. |
| 02 | Munetaka Murakami Chicago White Sox (AL) | +155 | AL favorite. Passed Chase DeLauter in late April. NPB veteran translating power game to MLB; implied prob ~39%. |
| 03 | Chase DeLauter Cleveland Guardians (AL) | +350 | Lost the AL favorite slot in late April but still in striking distance. |
| 04 | Kevin McGonigle Detroit Tigers (AL) | +450 | Was the AL frontrunner in early April; price drifted as Murakami climbed. |
| 05 | Kazuma Okamoto Toronto Blue Jays (AL) | +700 | Co-favorite at year start with McGonigle. NPB power bat adjusting to MLB pitching. |
| 06 | Konnor Griffin Pittsburgh Pirates (NL) | +1100 | Slipped from +260 three weeks ago. Cold streak after a hot opening; needs to bounce back. |
| 07 | Top rookie pitcher (AL) TBD | +1500 | Pitcher RoY typically requires 25+ starts and 3.0+ WAR; no AL rookie hurler has separated yet. |
| 08 | Top rookie pitcher (NL) TBD | +1800 | Same pitching floor; NL bias toward starters helps slightly. |
| 09 | Mid-season AL call-up TBD | +2500 | Players debuting June-July rarely have enough sample but can win with elite performance. |
| 10 | Mid-season NL call-up TBD | +3000 | Same logic for NL; position-player rookies have tighter window. |
Odds reflect a consensus snapshot across major US-licensed operators as of . Prices vary slightly between books; line-shop across two or three operators before placing a futures bet at this size.
What the Market Is Telling Us
Murakami at +155 in the AL reflects two things: (1) NPB veterans entering MLB typically hit at this price (Yamamoto 2024 pattern), and (2) the early-April front-runners (McGonigle, Okamoto) cooled. The White Sox are bad enough that Murakami plays every day with no platoon risk.
Stewart at +130 in the NL came from out of nowhere. The 2-HR / 6-RBI vs the Giants on April 15 catapulted him to NL Player of the Week, and the Reds have rewarded him with a clear everyday role. NL implied probability is ~43%; high for a still-young season.
Best AL value: Chase DeLauter at +350. He led the market in late March before Murakami's hot stretch flipped the order. If Murakami cools and DeLauter sustains his pace, this price reverts.
Best NL longshot: Konnor Griffin at +1100. Was +260 three weeks ago. Pirates have less talent around him to inflate stats but his Statcast metrics still grade out elite. If he gets traded at the deadline to a contender, the price moves fast.
How to Bet a Futures Market
Futures bets compound differently from straight game bets. Three principles separate sharp futures bettors from the field.
Bet early; the price only gets shorter
Futures markets compress as the season progresses. A team that opens at +1500 in March is rarely +1500 by July if they\'re winning. The cost of being right early is smaller than the cost of being right late.
Hedge selectively, never at first chance
Hedging mid-season locks in modest profit but caps your upside. Best hedge windows: when your futures team is one win from the championship, or when the opposing-side price is favorable enough to guarantee a meaningful return regardless of outcome.
Size for variance, not for confidence
Even a "mortal lock" futures bet has a 30-50% loss probability in the long run. Treat futures positions as longshots even when they feel safe. Use Kelly-criterion sizing if you have a calibrated edge.
Shop two-to-three books on every futures bet
Pricing differences of 50-100 cents on long-shot futures are routine. A +2000 ticket at one book might be +2200 at another; that 200-cent gap is 10% of your potential payout. Use the major US books (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars) as your line-shopping baseline.
Want to do the math? Use our parlay calculator to combine futures legs, our no-vig converter to see what the market actually believes, and our Kelly criterion calculator for optimal bet sizing.
Frequently Asked
When is MLB Rookie of the Year awarded?
MLB RoY (one award per league) is announced in mid-November during the BBWAA awards week. Voting is conducted by 30 BBWAA members per league. Ballots submitted at the end of the regular season.
What is the rookie eligibility requirement?
Players are rookie-eligible if they have not exceeded 130 at-bats (position) or 50 innings (pitcher) in prior MLB seasons, and have not spent more than 45 days on an active roster in any prior season. International players from NPB/KBO are typically rookie-eligible upon their first MLB season.
When is the best time to bet MLB RoY futures?
Three windows: (1) March-April Opening Day, when call-up rosters are confirmed; (2) Mid-June, when prospect call-ups have accumulated; (3) Mid-August, when leading candidates have separated and the field is clear.
Can pitchers win MLB RoY?
Yes. About 30% of recent MLB RoY winners are pitchers. The bar is high (25+ starts, sub-3.50 ERA, 3.0+ WAR) but the path exists. Yamamoto won in 2024; Strider was a contender in 2022.
How does MLB RoY differ from MVP?
RoY is restricted to first-year players; MVP is open to anyone. They are voted by the same writers but with different criteria. A rookie can theoretically win both (Ichiro 2001 was AL MVP and AL RoY) but it is extremely rare.
What is "Rookie Tier" in international signings?
Players coming from Japan's NPB or Korea's KBO have professional experience but are still rookie-eligible in MLB. They typically arrive ready to contribute (Ohtani, Yamamoto, Suzuki) and have high RoY-cashing rates because they skip the development curve.